One Step Closer

Now that the results of the elections from all over Britain are known, the time has come to draw some conclusions.

With approximately 41% of the votes, it is fair to say that the Conservative Party is the winner of the local elections which took place in England. No less than 38 new councils are now under control, including some like Chester, Blackpool and East Riding of Yorkshire. Other prominent councils won, include Dover and Plymouth in the south. Overall the number of Conservative Party councillors is up by 875, a very good result considering the target of 600 extra seats set by some.

However the Labour Party managed to hold to its votes fairly well, while the elections are certainly a defeat for them and a final “kick” for Tony Blair, a victory in 2009/10 for the General Elections is far from guaranteed. Gains in northern England are still far from sufficient; indeed winning seats in places like Manchester is an imperative, if we want to form a stable majority in any general election. Moreover if the observed fall-off in votes for the Liberal Democrats continues, the Labour Party may benefit from string swings or a tactical voting effect in any upcoming general election. The good work made by the Conservative Party for these elections, must continue next year, it is way too early to call in a respite, while 40% is a very good performance, we must aim for the 45% barrier and for Conservatives councillors in Manchester.

I knew before the Scottish Parliament elections, that these elections were going to be very tight. With the SNP emerging as the largest party with 47 seats against 46 for Labour, I was proven right. Despite losing one seat overall, the Conservative vote in Scotland held quite well, with one constituency seat gained in Roxburgh and Berwickshire and a swing of just 1,6% away from us in the regional lists. While the prospect of a Conservative revival in Scotland seems far fetched at the moment, the bases are laid, and we must build upon them. With most of the small parties like the Scottish Socialist Party eliminated, the only option for a potential governing coalition lead by the SNP is a SNP-Greens-Lib Dems coalition, having a water-thin majority of just two. Needless to say that upcoming weeks will be interesting in Holyrood.

The utter scandal of more than 100,000 spoiled ballot papers, is also worth mentionning. While holding two elections at the same time have a certain logic, using complicated procedures like Single Transferable vote does not. The differents voting systems used in Scotland and Wales are already complicated enough, but adding even more complexity by using single transferable vote in the Scottish local elections, was without doubt a climax of bureaucratic incompetence on the part of the Labour Party.

As for Wales, with no less that four constituency seats gained, the Conservative Party is back on tracks in the region. Labour managed to stay as the largest party, despite losing one seat to us and three seats to Plaid Cymru. The prospects of any coalition involving the Conservative Party, are almost non existent and much the same can be said for a Labour-Plaid coalition. This leaves us with either a Labour-Lib Dems coalition or, a minority administration lead by the Labour Party. As for Scotland, the upcoming weeks might be interesting.

While the Conservative Party clearly went one step closer to a potential General Election victory in 2009 or 2010. We must now build upon our gains all over the country, in order to reconquer places like Northern England and in the long run Wales and Scotland.