Conservative Local Election Analysis

Yesterday, Warwick and Breckland, the final two councils yet to conclude their counts, returned their results and brought an end to the English local elections.

In total, the Conservative party took 41% of the vote and gained an extra nine hundred and eleven councillors across England, which was substantially more than had been projected. At the same time Labour dropped five hundred and five seats and the Liberal Democrats suffered a humiliating loss of two hundred and forty six seats.

In Bath, the Lib Dems lost three seats overall while the Conservatives gained a total of five. Labour made a net loss of just one and two independents lost their seats. Therefore, the Conservatives are now the largest group on the council, though they do ran in just two seats short of an overall majority and thus Bath & North-East Somerset remains in No Overall Control.

Some analysts have seen these elections as a vindication of David Cameron’s compassionate conservatism and his move towards the centre-ground of British politics, encompassing a commitment to green issues and social welfare. However, I suspect that in the current state Labour are in, the Conservatives would have made similarly substantial gains whoever was leader and whatever their policies.

What is clear however is that, for Labour, these local elections were not the unmitigated disaster many commentators had predicted they would be. Though they lost a considerable number of seats; to an extent their percentage of the overall vote held up, while in Scotland and Wales their overall loses were not substantial. The Liberal Democrats also suffered humiliation nationwide. This is the second consecutive set of local elections where they have failed to make net gains, and I would imagine it won’t be too long before the leadership of Ming the Motionless is publicly question… not here though – you’re doing a fine job, Menzies: well done.

At the end of the day, the Conservative star is certainly rising again, but there is still someway to go before we win the next general election.