Save the Royal Navy!

In a ‘secret’ document revealed in today’s Daily Telegraph, Labour ministers are planning to slash the number of ships in the Royal Navy from 103 at present to 50 in 2027. While the purchase of two new carriers is confirmed, in others domains news are bleak to say the least. The numbers of frigates is scheduled to be reduced by 8 to just 9 units, of the present 13 submarines, up to 2 might not be replaced, the whole of the minesweeper fleet currently amounting to 16 units is due to be decommissioned and as far as the Auxiliary fleet is concerned, no less than 14 units will disappear.

In the present world climate, with the threat of Islamic terrorism, a resurgent Russia and an ambitious China, these cuts are ill advised to say the least. Before having a look at the offensive capabilities of the Royal Navy, it is also worth to remember that the Royal Navy must protect the home waters, but also waters around our overseas territories, the Falklands, Saint Helena, Pitcairn, Bermuda and twelve others places spread all around the globe. At present this task is devolved to our patrol ships, however since the 9 units are slated for removal by 2027 and perhaps much earlier, it is very fair to say that places like the Falklands will be defenceless by then. One of the reasons why Argentina attacked the islands back in 1982, was pencilled decommission of HMS Endurance, a patrol ship attached to the islands since 1967.

While the two new carriers will undoubtedly increase the offensive capabilities of the Royal Navy, a carrier without an escort and more importantly without an ASW escort, becomes a target for the enemy. With only 17 frigates and destroyers, the 2027 Navy would be incapable of providing a sufficient escorting force, since there are always ships either docked for repairs, refits or just simply on station somewhere else. The same can be said for the amphibious ships, as their escort would amount to almost nothing they would be ideals targets for enemy submarines or even surface ships.

In the context of today anti-terrorist operations, a navy without minesweepers would become extremely vulnerable and the reason for that is very simple, ‘dumb’ sea mines are an ideal weapon for terrorists, being cheap and widely available.

Some people will argue that today’s ships have much more firepower compared to their counterparts of the Falkland’s war. While this is true, it is worth remembering that 3 ships with a target destruction probability of 100%, facing 10 ships having a target destruction probability of only 40%, would be defeated on the second round with 7 enemy ships remaining in the end. The maintenance cost of today’s ships is also much lower, since automation means having a crew of less than a hundred members for a frigate.

In the face of our responsibilities in Irak, Afghanistan and in our overseas territories, any cut in our capabilities would be dangerous, and would only augment our forces exposures to unnecessary risks. The only responsible policy as far as the Navy is concerned, is replacing our ships on a one to one basis, coupled with an increase in the number of T45 destroyers to be built from 6 to 12. The Navy must also think about replacing the ageing Nimrods, with seaplanes of similar capabilities, allowing ASW air coverage to be extended to our naval forces while they are on the move.

Several cost cutting measures are also possible, one possibility would be to actively cooperate with our friends in the Commonwealth, who often have similar requirements, and this could allow a reduction of the cost per unit for new ships. Similar cooperation could be achieved with France, as the French Navy will have to replace several classes of frigates in the upcoming decade. Another kind of cooperation could also be possible with France, since the French Navy also has to protect extensive holdings in the Caribbean and the Pacific; the possibility of having common installations in these places could also be investigated.

As I already said in a previous article, history has proven to us that you can’t defend peace or even values, with weak armed forces and in the face of today’s world, I will never be among the ones who claim that ‘there will be no such thing as a World War Three’ or ‘the USSR is gone, big armies are not needed anymore’. Thence if the Labour government wants to save some money, they should better stop showering quangoes with money, rather than starving our armed forces of much needed cash.